There were many happy faces among the party leaders on election night. Only one party leader was not in the mood to smile. The big story of the election was that, despite low voter turnout, a red wave swept across Finland. This was followed by the Centre Party painting the map of Finland the green colour we remember from our childhood. At the same time, the National Coalition Party as the Prime Minister’s party managed to maintain its position and even slightly increased its share of the vote. The explanation for all this was that the Finns Party lost half of the support it had in the previous municipal elections, and its result returned to the level it was before the party’s landslide victories in previous years.
Now that the dust has settled and the air is filled with analyses, we are beginning to understand what has actually happened. The big story does not reveal all the things that will affect all our lives. These were the elections in which decision-makers were chosen to address local issues, particularly in terms of schools and healthcare.
The future of Finland is being built in its cities. Elections are also decided in cities. The urban vote was instrumental particularly in the Social Democrats’ election victory. In the 20 largest cities in Finland, SDP was the largest party in as many as 11. Before these elections, SDP was the largest party in five cities. This is particularly painful for the National Coalition Party, which lost five leading positions and is now number one in only three cities. It is worth noting that in the six largest cities, the parties are tied 3–3.
Even before the elections, we saw opposition to Orpo’s government policies in cities. This opposition will grow in the future. This will be particularly noticeable in the capital city, where the future mayor representing the National Coalition Party will have to navigate collaboration with a predominantly red and green City Council. Of the 85 seats on the council, 52 are held by the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Alliance.
The most intriguing question for those interested in politics is how these elections will affect the government policy. I, like many other experts, believe that the session on spending limits will be swiftly conducted under the Prime Minister. All parties in the current government coalition have the need to show that we have a functioning government that is still capable of making decisions. It may be that the Finns Party wants to highlight some of its victories to its supporters, especially those who did not turn out to vote or even voted “wrong”.
I predict that the rest of the government’s term will be difficult, especially given that the global economy is not providing any tailwinds. Finns Party representatives especially outside the ministerial group are beginning to fear for their seats in parliament. The need to raise their profile with issues outside the Government Programme will grow significantly.
The challenge for us TEK members is that such profile-raising will lead to a stricter immigration policy and more disputes over climate and environmental issues. Attracting international talent to our country is critical. The policy statements made in the beginning of the government term already raised concerns. New measures would drive away those who want to help build our welfare society. Backtracking on climate and environmental action could lead to turmoil in our operating environment and cause companies to hit the brakes on their investments.
Public support will next be measured in a couple of years in the parliamentary elections. We at TEK will continue our work for a better tomorrow.
